Boeing considers upping 737 production rate to 40 a month to meet 20-year demand

The Boeing Co. could decide by the end of the year whether to increase the production rate of the Renton-built Next Generation 737 to 40 a month.

That production rate would be the highest in the 737’s history, said Kristi Moen, a Boeing spokeswoman.

The possibility of a higher production rate is good news for the City of Renton and signifies Boeing’s commitment to the city, said Alex Pietsch, the administrator of the Department of Community and Economic Development.

“Any rampup of activity in Renton we see as a positive,” he said.

The company discussion comes at the same time Boeing is forecasting carriers in North America will take delivery of about 7,200 new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years, valued at $700 billion, according to a company press release.

Boeing is expecting that passenger traffic in North America will grow at a modest rate of 3.4 percent, said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, who released Boeing’s 2010 North America market outlook last week in Montreal.

Boeing forecasts that single-aisle airplanes, such as the 737, will grow from 56 percent of the total North America fleet today to 71 percent of the fleet by 2029, according to the press release.

Boeing is considering upping the 737 production rate “because we are anticipating long-term growth in the single-aisle market,” Moen said.

Currently, Boeing is producing 31 1/2 planes a month at the Renton plant, Moen said. That rate will increase to 35 planes in early 2012.

The 40-plane rate is one option Boeing officials are considering, she said. Also under discussion is what impact such an elevated rate would have on employment at the Renton plant, she said.

“It is too early to say whether it (higher production) would require additional hiring,” she said.

Pietsch said the city is hopeful a 40-plane-a-month could mean more jobs; but, so far, “we haven’t been told whether it will or not.”

Boeing’s 20-year forecast is for deliveries by all airplane manufacturers.

New airplane deliveries in Canada and the United States will be driven largely by the need to retire older, less fuel-efficient single-aisle airplanes and regional jets, as airlines replace them with new-generation, more fuel-efficient models, according to the press release.

Taking retirements of airplanes into account, the North America fleet will grow from 6,590 airplanes today to about 9,000 airplanes by 2029, according to Boeing.

Twin-aisle fleets will evolve in the region as airlines continue to expand international point-to-point services to a wider range of airport pairs and frequencies, according to the press release. Small- and mid-sized twin-aisle airplanes will grow to represent 19 percent of the North America fleet by 2029.

Within the North America market, Boeing sees a demand for 1,180 new, efficient twin-aisle airplanes such as the 787 Dreamliner. Twin-aisles will account for only 16 percent of total airplane demand in the region over 20 years but will have a proportionally higher share of delivery cost, at 37 percent of the overall investment, according to the press release.

Large airplanes (747-size and larger) will not see significant demand in North America, with only about 40 units (all freighters), or one percent of the total investment, according to the press release.